Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,373$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(133 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,810.7}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 113.6)}}\) (asimptote \(22,810.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(0.602 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41.8}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 51.5)}}\) (asimptote \(41.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,079$ on 2020-06-10

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $55,421$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(468 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{836,063.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 133.3)}}\) (asimptote \(836,063.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,210$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(19.6 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,295.1}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 110.8)}}\) (asimptote \(17,295.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,706$ on 2020-06-10

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,390$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(77.1 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,297.7}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 85.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,297.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $96$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(10.1 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{137.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 68.2)}}\) (asimptote \(137.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,729$ on 2020-06-10

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,484$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(980 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,190.7}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(12,190.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $732$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(150 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{660.0}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 33.6)}}\) (asimptote \(660.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,678$ on 2020-06-10

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,283$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(0.612 \times 10^{0.045t}\) (doubling rate \(6.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,976.7}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 71.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,976.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $71$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(0.0147 \times 10^{0.051t}\) (doubling rate \(5.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{148.1}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 73.7)}}\) (asimptote \(148.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,070$ on 2020-06-10

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $38,284$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(541 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{236,837.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 120.3)}}\) (asimptote \(236,837.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,342$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(85.9 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,110.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 88.5)}}\) (asimptote \(3,110.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $26,653$ on 2020-06-10

Gabon⮸

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,375$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(61.7 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,697.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 64.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,697.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $22$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(0.832 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29.8}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 68.0)}}\) (asimptote \(29.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,375$ on 2020-06-10

Sudan⮸

Population $43,849,260$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,582$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(476 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,454.4}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(7,454.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $401$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(13.8 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{730.3}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 54.9)}}\) (asimptote \(730.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,979$ on 2020-06-10

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Tunisia recovered 93%
Chad recovered 83%
Djibouti recovered 13%

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,087$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(384 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,052.0}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 24.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,052.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $49$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(20 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46.7}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 18.3)}}\) (asimptote \(46.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $55$ on 2020-06-10

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $846$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(89 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{867.5}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 34.1)}}\) (asimptote \(867.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $72$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(21.6 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67.4}{1 + 10^{-0.086 (t - 13.8)}}\) (asimptote \(67.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $68$ on 2020-06-10